The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has forecast that non-member crude oil supply to the global market in 2012 will grow by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) with countries such as Ghana, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the US and Russia contributing to the growth.
“In 2012, non OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d, in line with the previous assessment. Ghana, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the US and Russia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, UK, and Mexico are anticipated to experience the largest declines,” Vienna-based OPEC said today November 9, 2011 in its monthly oil market report.
The organisation says oil supply from non-members is also expected to increase by 0.22 mb/d in 2011 to average 52.50 mb/d. “This represents a sharp downward revision of 0.13 mb/d from the previous report.”
“The adjustment came mainly from the second half of 2011, as updated third quarter production showed lower-than-expected output – The UK, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Yemen, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and China supply profiles encountered downward revisions, while upward revisions were experienced in the US, Canada, Norway and Russia supply estimations,” it said.
It added that the downward revisions were much larger than the upward ones, resulting in the downward revision to non-OPEC supply growth in 2011.
On Africa, OPEC anticipates “oil production to increase by 30,000 barrels per day in 2011 to average 2.62 million per day, relatively flat compared to the previous Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). “A minor downward revision was encountered in the Ghana oil supply forecast as reports suggested that continued technical challenges are delaying output to reach a first phase peak of 120,000 barrels per day.”
The minor downward revision for the Ghana oil supply outlook did not impact the Africa oil supply forecast, the 12-member group says. Members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela..
On a quarterly basis, it said Africa oil output is seen averaging 2.61 million barrels per day, 2.58 million barrels per day, 2.61 million barrels per day and 2.67 million barrels per day, respectively.
Ghana has so far produced 22 million barrels of oil and 21 oil cargoes have been exported since commercial oil production began in the country on December 15, 2010, according to British oil producer and lead oil company at the Jubilee field, Tullow Oil in its Interim Management Statement released today November 9, 2011.
OPEC said demand for its crude for 2012 is averagely at 30 million barrels per day, 0.1 million barrel per day higher than what was announced in the previous report.
By Ekow Quandzie